Market Update 12/02/24

Market Update 12/02/24

The interplay of various factors contributed to the downward trajectory of energy prices. Power prices closely followed the movements in gas prices, with supply fundamentals remaining robust. European carbon prices also experienced a notable decline, reaching their lowest level since early 2022. This downturn was attributed to bearish indicators and weakened demand, notably affecting the Dec 24 EUA contract.

The interplay of various factors contributed to the downward trajectory of energy prices. Power prices closely followed the movements in gas prices, with supply fundamentals remaining robust. European carbon prices also experienced a notable decline, reaching their lowest level since early 2022. This downturn was attributed to bearish indicators and weakened demand, notably affecting the Dec 24 EUA contract.

Furthermore, the postponement of the return of two French nuclear reactors added to the complex dynamics of the market. EDF's announcement regarding the delayed comeback of the St Laurent and Gravelines reactors highlighted unforeseen challenges in the nuclear energy sector, impacting overall energy supply.

Norwegian Flows and Storage Dynamics: Norwegian flows remained robust, totaling 355 million cubic meters per day (mcm/day). Concurrently, withdrawals from storage continued, contributing to the overall supply-demand balance. As of January 19, storages across Europe were at 75.49%, highlighting ongoing utilization and adaptability in response to changing market conditions.

Curve Prices and Power Market Rebound: Beyond spot prices, increases were observed across the curve, mirroring the factors influencing the spot market. The expectations of colder weather conditions influenced market sentiment, contributing to a broader upward movement in prices. Power prices in Europe experienced a rebound, aligning with the anticipation of increased demand during the colder period.

Storage Dynamics: While storage withdrawals are projected to be higher in response to the expected increase in demand, the overall storage levels remained robust, currently standing at 86.07%. This indicates a balanced utilization of storage facilities to meet heightened demand while maintaining a healthy reserve, showcasing the adaptability of the energy market to changing conditions.

Storage Levels and Market Metrics:

 

As of the latest data provided by AGSI, Pan European storage recorded a level of 67.48%. This metric serves as a key indicator of the overall energy landscape, reflecting the balance between supply and demand. Understanding storage levels is crucial for market participants as they navigate the complexities of energy trading.

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